Football-Bet-Data inspired blog: 2012

So my system.

My system is based around selections published on http://www.football-bet-data.com/ I am selecting games where the score is predicted to be 0-0, the goals galore odds are over evens, and the draw odds are less than 3.5. So the game is already predicted to be even and low scoring (the lower the goals predicted, the higher the chance of a draw).

The goals galore odds are above evens (this suggests the chances of both teams scoring is less than 50% the normal average chance is around 53%), and the projected odds for a draw are lower then 3.5 (so a greater than 28.5% chance which is again the normal average).

Of course I am not naïve enough to think I will win every time.

I’ve suffered so many late goals (both for and against) so I have built a loss recovery plan into my stakes.

My stakes are based around a staking plan I have been working with for some time.
I am betting across 2 markets. Firstly backing the draw, and secondly backing correct score 0-0 (or first goalscorer no goal scorer). Both run seperate from each other.

Over my years of betting I believe this is one market that is hugely over priced. Lets be honest, most people you know who bet on football will usually be positively – ie For something to happen. Most people want goals, they want the favourite to win, and they stay away from games that are notoriously tight or hard to predict.

This plays into my hands as I can trawl through for best odds knowing that the range can often be huge.

I am glad that the http://www.football-bet-data.com/ site have added projected correct score odds to their selections as this allowed me to properly back test my system.

What I found was that not only is this system profitable – it is also profitable at odds a lot lower than are usually on offer.

For the purpose of this blog – and for anyone wanting to cross reference my selections, I will use the odds published by http://www.football-bet-data.com/

My own personal selections will be placed at usually odds 10% greater than published.

So a quick example of my system

Always start with a target of 1 for the 1st bet and add 1 for each and every bet until a profit is made and the coup is closed. (this figure can be adjusted depending on your risk and bank)

Bet at the indicated stake until the returns exceed current point chase. Do not start a new plan until the coup is closed.

My systems started on 1st October and since then I have made over £2,000.

Using the http://www.football-bet-data.com/ sheets as proof I still would have made £1,500 from a £4,500 total stake (33% Yield).

So an introduction about me. My name is Craig, I’m 32 years old and am currently working in a factory in Coventry.

I’ve been into gambling / trying to win money for as long as I can remember. Starting off at an early age betting for sweets and then 2p or 5ps with my brother and family members at Christmas.

Even at 11/12 years old I knew that I enjoyed gambling and the thrill of winning.

My first real taste of gambling came when I was about 17 /18 when on a holiday to Paignton in Devon with my first girlfriend. She got me into fruit machines (nothing serious just the 5p ones back then), thinks like the pink panther, and the Simpsons machines. She taught me most of the cheats and I was infatuated by them. Every day we would be on the pier or in the arcades on the machines.
I even remember sneaking out of our b&b one night to “get a drink” and spending money in the arcades while she was still in bed in the room. Life was good at 17/18. Just started discovering alcohol and gambling – the downfall of many a person. I then became more interested in gambling. The “buzz” of winning £5 jackpots had gripped me.
I distinctly remember one day losing about £13 and I was heart broken.
I was working on a YTS scheme in a retail outlet and earning about £56 a week so to lose nearly 25% of my weeks wages on a silly fruit machine affected me.
Still, I decide there must be a way of winning extra money.

The guys who I all worked with were older. Most around 24 – 30 and were into their drinking and gambling. I learnt how to write out a betting slip in the bookies and to “make sure I paid my tax”.

Back then in 1997 you still had to pay tax on your bets or instead lose it off any winning bets you had. I knew nothing about horses but would go into Coral at lunchtimes and follow the older guys and back horses.

We would then go to the pub after work and spend hours on the fruit machines. I was very much in awe at the older guys I worked with. I became a familiar face at my local, and would often pop in with my girlfriend and best mate. I got my best mate into fruit machines and quiz machines and we would spend every last penny on them while drinking pints of bitter.

When not on the fruit machines I would be watching the people who were – “convinced” that if they didn’t take any money out that I would.
Of course, more often that not my 5 pints down the pub would cost a lot more than the standard £8 or so it was back then – it would be more like £20 by the time I had ploughed change into fruit machines and quiz machines. Its funny, as even now I still remember the wins I used to have.

One particular night me and my friend won a “double jackpot” on a cards fruit machine. It only paid out £30 but it made out night. I gradually got myself off fruit machines. I didn’t have any counselling or hypnotherapy just my own self motivation.

My gambling habits were bad – but they weren’t that bad.

The price per spin went up from the 5p fun ones I used to play, to 20p ones in pubs. They then became 25p a spin, and then 30p a spin, to 50p a spin, and now I believe most are £1 a spin. I sussed out that fruit machines most definitely were NOT a way to make a fast (or even a slow) buck.

Of course, I still had the gambling bug inside me. I would go to bingo with my girlfriends family, and even put the odd £2 / £3 on horses while out on my own, but the fruit machine addiction had been curbed by the age of 20.

I had started understanding how to bet on football, and would place a weekly 6 team accumulator for £1 with a 50p 5 fold. £3.50 in total and I felt like a big time Charlie. Very very rarely would I win, I was beginning to realise how difficult it was to win money from the world of gambling. By late 1999 I was “well in” with the older lads at work.

There were a younger bunch of lads coming through at the 17/18 age and I was approaching 20. The older lads were still there, and I still looked up to them. They started making trips down to the casino and one night I joined them.

I was fascinated by this Smokey light filled room which I never knew had existed, but was at the bottom of the city centre I had lived in for my whole 20 years.

I would mainly watch the older lads on the fruit machines. These were “proper” fruit machines with jackpots into the hundreds of pounds. I threw a few pound coins down on the roulette table (but had no idea how roulette worked), and then played a bit of black jack. I remember playing pontoon (or 21) with family or friends so quickly picked up black jack. Terms like “double down” and “splits” became second nature to me.

Nights down the casino became the norm into 2001, and still only betting small stakes (table minimum of £2) on black jack I had seen it as a way to make some money by actually controlling what I was doing. I could sit in which ever spare seat I wanted, play stakes as high or low as I wanted, and take as many or few cards as I wanted.

In early 2001 I left my first job. A job that had taught me so much about the real world. Not really the working side of it – but certainly the social.

I made friends, and looked up to people. Some of which I still see and speak to now. The cause of me leaving – a girl!

As this is a betting thread I wont elaborate too much. But was basically working with a girl, and when it all went belly up I quit my job, with nothing else as an alternative. I found a job through my auntie in a local factory in Feb 2001 only a few weeks after leaving my other job.

I had never done factory work before, and it was totally different to working in retail.

In retail it was drilled into you that the customer is right, be polite and helpful. The direct opposite was true in the factory world, people were rude, ignorant and unhelpful. Still it was a job, and it helped to fund my betting urges.

As is the way of the world, I drifted away from my old work colleagues on a social level, and started making new friends (some old school friends) from going to watch my local football team Coventry City.

My social life was good. Great new girlfriend, football on a Saturday with the lads, nights out every weekend which would inevitably end up in the casino and then back to the 10 hour days in the factory!

The casino trips started becoming the norm. I had 2 new friends who were equally hooked. I began to understand roulette and we would “3 team” the table.

The chip values were only 25p. We would put £10 each on the table and I would lump my stack around the top, and the other 2 lads around the bottom and middle. Roulette is the quickest way to win (and lose) your money as we quite often found out. Still I found it fun.

It started becoming a bit of an addiction though. I got on first name terms with most of the staff, and would try and limit myself to my spend by only taking a fixed amount out with me. There were times where I’d end up driving back home to get my cash card to release more gambling funds for the table though.

Most of the betting was roulette, with the occasional hand of black jack thrown in.

As my earning went up to around £200 a week, my gambling stakes increase exponentially. Instead of feeling sick after loosing £13, I would often go home with that same feeling after losing £70, £80 even £100+ on nights down the casino.

Around 2003 time a new super casino was built. With the swish new carpets and settings, new machines were introduced where you didn’t even have to sit at a table to gamble. You could feed money into a machine and bet on a “live” roulette table from within the same room. Most of my spare money would go on nights out on the beer, and nights finishing in the casino. It was the only place in town open past 3am back then.

Of course there would be the odd win, but more often than not, most weeks money would be squandered in the casino.

I moved from factory floor worker, to office worker with the same company in 2004. I had a large circle of new friends, who I’d met through going to football and nights on the beer. My gambling had cut back somewhat between 2004-2007 as alcohol became my preferred guilty pleasure and I’d also moved into my own flat so realised I needed to cut back.

There was also the introduction of 24 hour pubs and licenses – I no longer needed to go in the casino at 3am to avoid getting the cab home. Of course there would still be the odd flutter, and odd night in the casino but it had significantly decreased.

Saying that however, I had discovered the world of online poker, and a £10 or £20 home game poker night would be held from time to time.

In 2007 I lost my job in the offices and was made redundant. I was fortunate enough to start a new job within a month in a similar role (the one I’m in now still) less than 10 minutes from my home.

The wages I receive(d) were significantly higher than anything I had experienced before. (Currently earning around £500 per week). The odd occasion I went to the casino (normally when drunk) money seemed no object.

I specifically recall losing £400 within 5 minutes just by betting on red or black. This was about 2008 and I have hardly been back in a casino since.

My job role involves analysing data and numbers. Its relatively easy for me as I do have a natural knack so hence why I have a bit of spare time to create this blog.

I’ve also spent many hours on the internet (god forbid my IT department ever do an audit) searching for gambling tips, strategies and ways to make money (which I am about to come on to).

Some people don’t understand why professional footballers – or sportsmen are addicted to gambling. They say, “with all that money why do they need to gamble”. Well I can most definitely see why they can or do become addicted to gambling. I am a small scale example of that.
I would gamble £13 when earning £56 a week to try and win £20. Right through to now where I will gamble £200 when earning £500 a week, to try and win £300.
The bug gets bigger the more you earn. There would be no thrill, or edge if I was to lose £13 now. With the bigger earnings come the bigger stakes. The footballers don’t gamble for the money. They do it for the thrill and the buzz.

I think as long as you can keep your gambling within reasonable limits then it’s not doing any harm. Sure there have been occasions where I’ve put money on a bet rather than buy a valentines present, or gambled money from my overdraft or credit card – but what I wont do is sell possessions, steal, or go into un arranged credit to satisfy my gambling requirement.

I have been at stages before where It was either beg, borrow or steal to continue gambling – or pack it up. I can happily say I realised that was the time to stop, and I would leave it alone for a few months until my finances were back in check.

So where is all this going I hear you ask? Well in mid 2011 I found a website called http://www.football-bet-data.com/. I’ve been in regular correspondence with the guys asking them question after question about their predictions. Predicting football results is something that fascinates me, and is something I have always wanted to do. This website saves me having to do any of the donkey work, and provides all the information I need.

As I’ve previously mentioned I have spare time on my hands at work. I’ve spent hours and hours looking into their predictions and projections and also have made suggestions to their existing data that I am very glad they have accommodated for me and others to use.

I devised a betting system which uses their selections along with a clever staking plan that I have developed to make me steady regular profits.

I am not hoping to win millions. Anyone who thinks they can do that by any other means than a lottery fluke is delusional. What I want to do, and have been doing with success since October 2011 is making gradual steady profits without risking ridiculous amounts of money each time.

The way I look at gambling now is – if it can pay my bills, sky, petrol, food, season ticket or whatever for the month – I am a happy man.

In my next blog post I will outline the system strategy and requirements, and I will then keep regular blog posts as to how I get on.

Thanks for Reading. Craig

Football-Bet-Data inspired blog

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

Selections 21/02/2012

Sunday, 19 February 2012

Selections 19/02/2012

Saturday, 18 February 2012

Football tips 18/02/12

Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Football tips 15/02/12

Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Football tips 14/02/12

Monday, 13 February 2012

Football tips 13/02/12

My football betting system

About me